![]() ![]() Carbon Brief is now working to further develop the analysis with Dr Caldecott and his colleagues. The methodology used – and its limitations – are explained in detail at the end of this article. ![]() The idea for this analysis was first proposed to Carbon Brief by Dr Ben Caldecott at the University of Oxford. This is because most of the allowable emissions have already been used up, meaning young people will not have the luxury of unmitigated emissions enjoyed by older generations. In all cases, younger generations will have to make do with substantially smaller lifetime carbon budgets than older generations, if the Paris limits are to be respected. It also considers two different ways of sharing future allowable emissions: one where each country tracks “ optimal” pathways taken from models and another, focused on equality, where each person can use the same portion of future emissions, no matter where they live. It looks at two different scenarios: one where the world limits warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 and one were warming is limited to 1.5C. The interactive tool, below, shows the size of each person’s “carbon budget” during their lifetime – based on when and where they were born. In a world where warming is limited to 1.5C, the average person born today can emit only an eighth of the lifetime emissions of someone born in 1950. ![]() To determine just how much smaller their personal CO2 limits would be, Carbon Brief has combined historical data on emissions and population with projections for the future. Essentially, they would have fewer “allowable” CO2 emissions during their lifetime, compared with older generations. If these goals are to be met, young people would have to live the greater part of their lives without contributing significantly to global emissions. Global emissions of CO2 need to decline precipitously over the next few decades, if the world is to meet the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to “well below 2C” and, ideally, below 1.5C. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |